Prediction of Gastao Elias vs Alec Deckers at M25 Sintra 10-24-25

• How do players compare in terms of second serve performance? Alec Deckers outperforms Gastao Elias, winning 47.09% compared to Elias' 43.20% over the last six months.
• Who has the edge in return game stats? Gastao Elias has a slight advantage, winning 47.63% of opponents' second serve points and 26.16% on first serve returns, whereas Alec Deckers is at 43.28% and 22.72% respectively.
• Facing breakpoints, Alec Deckers excels, saving 57.60%, compared to Gastao Elias' 48.95% in recent matches.
• What about overall match performance? Alec Deckers leads with a 75.00% win rate over the last year, whereas Gastao Elias has a 62.26% win rate.
• Surface preferences show Gastao Elias best on clay with a 57% win rate, while Alec Deckers prefers indoor hard courts with the same win percentage.
• Examining recent match level, Elias recorded an 82.14% win rate in lower-tier tournaments compared to Deckers' 75.00% at a similar level.
• What is their record for opponent quality? Gastao Elias faced higher-ranked opponents with an average rank of 291.06, while Alec Deckers' opponents averaged a rank of 355.39.
• If the match goes to a deciding set, Deckers has a slight edge, winning 67% of such sets compared to Elias' 64% over the past year.

Editorial Prediction (October 24, 2025, UTC):

Both players show competitive strengths and weaknesses. Alec Deckers boasts superior second serve performance and breakpoint saving capabilities, key attributes for match dominance.

Gastao Elias, however, excels in return games and has faced a higher caliber of opponents, potentially preparing him better for high-pressure contests.

Elias prefers clay surfaces, while Deckers shows strength on indoor hard courts, suggesting a tactical advantage depends on the match surface.

Considering the all-around stats and recent performances, Alec Deckers appears slightly favored to win, primarily due to his better performance under pressure and overall match success rate.